Showdown Ravens @ Dolphins

Ryan Porter
Oct 30
2 min read

🏈 Matchup Context & Game Flow

The Ravens are favored by approximately 7.5 points in Miami, with the total over/under set around 50.5 points.
The Ravens are expected to have Lamar Jackson back after missing several games due to a hamstring injury.
The Dolphins’ defense is vulnerable, especially versus the run, and opposing quarterbacks are seeing elevated pass attempts against the Ravens.
Game script note: If Baltimore gets ahead, they’ll lean run; if Miami falls behind, expect heavy passing volume. That creates dual angles for fantasy.

🔥 Fantasy / Showdown Player Targets & Angles

Role	Player	Why They’re Attractive	Risks & Notes
Captain / MVP	Lamar Jackson (QB, Ravens)	Return of Jackson boosts ceiling — dual-threat (pass + rush). The matchup favors his return.	Coming off injury, could be eased in; if Ravens control on ground, his passing volume may dip.
Captain / MVP	Derrick Henry (RB, Ravens)	Ravens can exploit Miami’s weak run defense. Henry offers big-play and goal-line upside.	If Ravens fall behind or Miami loads box, his upside may get capped.
Flex / WR Upside	Zay Flowers (WR, Ravens)	With Jackson back, his air-yards and red-zone target share project up.	He’s still relatively less proven vs top coverage; efficiency matters.
Flex / Value	De’Von Achane (RB, Dolphins)	Miami’s offense may try to quick strike via run/pass; Achane gives big play upside even as underdog.	If game script forces heavy chasing, he may split or lose volumes.
Flex / WR Value	Jaylen Waddle (WR, Dolphins)	Dolphins projected to pass heavily (due to mismatch) and he’s a big red-zone target.	Ravens may control tempo and limit upside; Waddle may face tight coverage.

🎯 Strategy & Build Insights

Stacking: Ravens QB + WR (Jackson + Flowers) is a strong core given the return and matchup. Alternately, Dolphins QB + Waddle is a contrarian upset path.
Because the total is ~50.5 and both defenses have issues, leaning into players with upside is smart — you want explosion, not just floor.
For value plays, running backs (Henry, Achane) provide both volume and big-play potential; RBs tend to differentiate in Showdown builds.
Monitor Jackson’s status closely pre-game. If his mobility is limited or load is restricted, that may shift the optimal stack away from him.
Don’t overcommit to Miami’s offense unless you believe they’ll force the pace. Ravens are favored and could control the game — thus limiting Miami’s upside.

✅ Final Thoughts & Edge Pick

This game has shootout potential thanks to Miami’s defensive vulnerabilities and Baltimore’s offense getting Jackson back. I lean Ravens to cover and perhaps win by a touchdown or more, but fantasy value exists on both sides.

Edge picks:

Lean Jackson/Flowers as your core for upside.
Use Henry as a leverage piece since the run matchup is strong.
Consider Achane or Waddle as “upside contrarian” plays if you’re going tournament/GPP builds.
Given the spread and matchups, expect heavier pass volume for Miami, so stacking Dolphins pass catchers could be a differentiator.