Showdown Broncos @ Commanders

Game & Context

Line / Total: Broncos are 6.5-point favorites. The over/under sits around 43.5.
Team outlook: Denver is 9-2 and riding a hot streak; Washington is 3-8 and struggling — makes Denver the safer, higher-floor side, but there’s tournament upside on Washington if volatility strikes.
Matchup key point: The Commanders’ run defense has been among the worst in the league — giving up strong per-carry and yardage numbers. That sets up nicely for Broncos backs, particularly if they lean ground-heavy.

Here are the standout Captain candidates for your Showdown builds:

RJ Harvey (Broncos RB): With run-defense weakness, Harvey projects to see heavy usage and could break long runs or find the end zone — strong ceiling in DFS especially on a run-heavy script.
Bo Nix (Broncos QB): If Denver leans pass/tempo, Nix offers upside as a Captain — higher scoring floor than a risky negative-game script. Several analysts list him as one of their top plays.
Deebo Samuel (Commanders WR): For a contrarian approach — if Washington pushes tempo or needs to pass to keep up, Deebo could pop for a big game and reward Captain-slot upside.

Tier 1 — High-upside / higher-floor

RJ Harvey (if not Captain) — bell-cow value plus TD upside from run game.
Broncos WRs / pass-catchers (if you stack with Nix) — pairing QB + pass catchers helps maximize correlation on positive script. (e.g. WR/TE value from Broncos)
Commanders WRs like Deebo Samuel — dart-throw in tournament builds for potential high upside if game script forces volume.

Tier 2 — Value / contrarian / salary-lever plays

Commanders pass-catchers/TE — cheaper pivot pieces, especially if you expect Denver to load up against top targets.
Backup RB or secondary offensive-skill players on Washington — volatility makes for upside if they sneak a few big plays.
Broncos defense/DST — given how stout Denver has been, could make sense for contrarian builds focused on turnovers/sacks.

“Safe + Ground-Lean” stack: Captain RJ Harvey + Denver WR/TE + possibly Broncos DST — banking on run-heavy script and controlling game flow.
“Pass-Upside” stack: Captain Bo Nix + Broncos pass-catchers — aiming for positive pass volume, especially if Broncos get ahead early.
“Contrarian / Volatile” stack: Captain Deebo Samuel (or Washington WR/TE/RB) + mix of value pieces + maybe exposure to Broncos DST — high risk, high upside builds for GPPs.
Balanced hedge: Mix Broncos and Commanders pieces — helps cover multiple script outcomes (run-heavy, pass-heavy, or shootout) while staying under salary.

Here are 3 sample roster shapes (no exact salaries, just template logic):

(A) High-Ceiling / GPP Build

Captain: RJ Harvey
Flex: Broncos WR/TE, Bo Nix, Commanders WR (Deebo Samuel), Broncos DST, Commanders WR value

(B) Safer / Cash-Style Build

Captain: Bo Nix
Flex: Broncos WR/TE, RJ Harvey, Broncos WR2/value, Broncos DST (or safe value WR/TE), Commanders cheap WR

(C) Contrarian / Tournament Leverage Build

Captain: Deebo Samuel
Flex: Commanders WR2 or TE, Broncos WR (value), RJ Harvey (or backup), Broncos DST, Commanders RB or cheap pass-catcher

The matchup heavily favors the Broncos — they get a weak run defense to exploit, and they’re coming in as legitimate favorites.
RJ Harvey looks like the top levered floor/ceiling play given his projected workload and favorable matchup.
For tournaments, mixing in some “broken-script” plays (Commanders pass-catchers, defense, cheap WR/TE) gives differentiation when ownership stacks around the chalk.