ADP Risers & Fallers: The Fantasy Moves You Must Make Before Week 1

The fantasy calendar waits for no one. With Week 1 less than two weeks away, the waiver wire and draft boards are on fire. Let's break down who's skyrocketing — and who you need to drop like a bad trade offer.

🟢 THIS WEEK'S RISERS

MarShawn Lloyd, RB — Green Bay Packers

This one broke fast and hit hard. Josh Jacobs was placed on the Commissioner's Exempt List after being charged with misdemeanor battery and criminal damage to property stemming from an alleged incident in May. He cannot practice or play until the NFL says otherwise — and Jacobs' first court appearance isn't until November 17, meaning this situation could drag deep into the 2026 season. That's not a two-week headache — that could be a season-long absence.

Enter MarShawn Lloyd. His ADP has been skyrocketing — up 18.3 spots on Underdog and 23.5 on DraftKings over the past week alone — and it hasn't stopped climbing. The Packers responded by acquiring Kaleb Johnson from the Pittsburgh Steelers as early-down depth, while Chris Brooks handles passing-down work. But Lloyd is the clear-cut RB1 in Green Bay for as long as Jacobs is sidelined.

• Lloyd is a mid-round target right now — don't sleep on him

• Jacobs shouldn't even be drafted until there's confirmed clarity on his return

• Johnson is a handcuff worth grabbing in deeper leagues

Chris Bell, WR — Miami Dolphins

A November ACL tear kept him out, but Bell is back — and he played real snaps in Miami's third preseason game. The third-round rookie was a round or two higher on most big boards before the injury. Malik Washington and Caleb Douglas are locked into the WR1/2 spots for Week 1, but Bell is the most talented pass-catcher on this roster. Grab him late, stash him, and let him develop. He's a best-ball gem with genuine WR2 upside later in the season.

Kaelon Black, RB — San Francisco 49ers

The Indiana product won the RB2 competition in San Francisco's final preseason game, playing ahead of Jordan James when both were finally on the field together. Here's why this matters: Christian McCaffrey turns 30 next season and has an extensive injury history. Black flashed legitimate pass-protection chops during the preseason — a skill that earns trust from coaches quickly. He's not a fantasy starter, but as the most valuable handcuff in the NFC, he's worth a late-round pick in any format.

Emmett Johnson, RB — Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs cut Emari Demercado, and just like that, Johnson is the clear RB2 in Kansas City behind Kenneth Walker III. He had an impressive preseason camp, won the backup job, and now stands one injury away from a legitimate fantasy starter role. Brashard Smith is still around as a pass-catching option, but Johnson has the carry succession locked up. He's up 10.5 on Underdog and 4.1 on DraftKings this week — grab him before the price gets too steep. 

Michael Penix Jr., QB — Atlanta Falcons

Not a redraft play, but Penix has become one of the most interesting final-round QB options in best ball. Tua Tagovailoa has struggled throughout camp, and Penix is reportedly pushing hard for the starting job. Even if Tua opens Week 1 under center, it's hard to imagine him holding the job long. The rising Penix tide also lifts Drake London, who could emerge as a genuine WR1 in this offense. File both names away.

🔴 THIS WEEK'S FALLERS

Alvin Kamara, RB — New Orleans Saints

The hits keep coming for Kamara. The five-time Pro Bowler suffered a sprained MCL during joint practice with the Cowboys and is expected to miss at least a month — meaning he'll miss Week 1 for just the second time in his career. Kamara was already coming off a down 2025 season and was lined up for a reduced complementary role after the Saints signed Travis Etienne Jr. to a four-year, $48 million deal.

The clear winner here is Etienne — he's the every-down back for New Orleans to start the season and projects as a RB1 with top-10 upside during Kamara's absence. Kendre Miller will spell Etienne and keep him fresh, but Miller had just 193 rushing yards and one TD in seven games last season — he's not a fantasy asset. As for Kamara himself? At 31, with this being his second MCL sprain in recent years, his days as a reliable fantasy starter are behind him. He's a late-round dart at best when healthy, and not even that right now.

Isiah Pacheco, RB — Detroit Lions

Pacheco's ADP is falling — down 15.9 on Underdog — but honestly, it probably hasn't dropped far enough. He's now dealing with a back injury on top of the knee issue he came into camp with. The Lions kept five running backs on their initial 53-man roster, which tells you everything you need to know about how much they trust him right now. Detroit may still go outside the organization for RB2 help before Week 1. Avoid unless the price becomes truly negligible.

Isaac TeSlaa, WR — Detroit Lions

His ADP has cratered — down 14.4 on Underdog over the past two weeks — after an underwhelming camp where he was going against backups while starters rested. But here's the contrarian take: at his current price (an 18th-round pick on Underdog), TeSlaa is worth a flier. He caught six touchdowns on 27 targets as a rookie and is the clear WR3 on one of the NFL's most explosive offenses. The target ceiling is limited — he's not a volume play — but in best ball, he could easily score 4-6 touchdowns again. The price is too low to ignore completely.

Omar Cooper Jr., WR — New York Jets

The first-round pedigree keeps his price artificially high on some platforms, but the reality is murky. Isaiah Williams is reportedly pushing him for starting slot snaps, and Cooper isn't close to threatening Adonai Mitchell for the WR2 role. His college production profile was underwhelming, and the offseason hasn't done him any favors. He's only worth a dart throw at his DraftKings price (rounds 18-19) — not at his Underdog number.

Jaylin Noel, WR — Houston Texans

The Kayshon Boutte trade hit Noel harder than most. His ADP is sliding — down 4.6 on Underdog this week — and the Texans' WR room behind Nico Collins is a genuine mess with Boutte, Xavier Hutchinson, and Noel all competing for roles, plus four tight ends on the 53-man roster signaling a heavy personnel philosophy. Noel will likely remain anchored in the slot. That said, he was Houston's second-most efficient pass-catcher per target in 2025. He's a late-round boom-or-bust swing in best ball — just don't expect a defined role out of the gate.